A ‘naughty child’ warming the world

A 'naughty child' warming the worldBy Wei Ke | China Daily | Updated: 2026-09-21 09:09

MA XUEJING/CHINA DAILY

El Niño, meaning "little boy" in Spanish, is an innocuous name for a geographical phenomenon that can make half the world swelter while sending the other half scrambling for sandbags to control floods.

The name has an interesting origin. Centuries ago, fishermen off the northern coast of Peru noticed that around Christmas, a southward warm current appeared near shore, briefly reversing the usual cold flow.

It usually brought tropical fish rarely seen in those waters and occasional rainfall that briefly turned the desert green. The warm current was named El Niño after the Christ child.

Don't let the name fool you. El Niño is anything but small. It involves prolonged periods of unusually warm sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Meteorologists have fairly strict criteria for defining an El Niño event: sea-surface temperatures in a key monitoring region of the tropical Pacific must remain at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods.

The stronger the temperature anomaly, the stronger the El Niño is generally considered to be.

The next "little boy" may be particularly troublesome. Forecasts suggest that by the end of 2026, the tropical Pacific could be heading toward an exceptionally strong El Niño, potentially rivaling the most powerful events on record.

Another reason for concern is the tropical Pacific's role as a giant ocean battery. Before El Niño arrives, heat accumulates beneath the surface, as if the battery were charging. Once enough energy has built up, it discharges, releasing heat into the atmosphere and triggering a chain reaction. By August 2026, the tropical Pacific had accumulated an extraordinary amount of heat, surpassing levels seen during some previous record-setting El Niño events.

El Niño does not recognize borders. As the Pacific gets warmer, it sends ripples through the atmosphere that disturb weather patterns thousands of kilometers away. The most immediate impact is higher temperatures, with the warmest year often occurring several months after El Niño peaks.

This pattern was evident following the El Niño that began in late 2023. It contributed to the record warmth of 2024, which was the warmest year in recorded history.

Adding another, even bigger El Niño to an already warming planet raises the baseline for extreme weather. A hotter atmosphere holds more moisture — roughly 7 percent more for every 1 degree Celsius of warming. That is a cruel multiplier. Wet regions may experience torrential rain, while dry places lose water faster through evaporation. Floods and droughts then become two sides of the same warming coin.

El Niño often divides the world this way. In parts of Southeast Asia and eastern Australia, it can lead to heat and drought.

On the eastern side of the Pacific, the script reverses. Peru and Ecuador may face unusually heavy rain, causing floods and landslides. Even the Atacama Desert, one of the driest places on Earth, can bloom after unusual rainfall, turning a barren landscape into a surreal carpet of flowers.

The ecological consequences can be profound. El Niño-related changes in rainfall and temperature have been associated with conditions favorable to major locust outbreaks across East Africa and parts of Asia, threatening crops and food security on a vast scale.

In China, El Niño effects can vary. During the development of an El Niño event, parts of the middle Yangtze region can turn drier, while the following summer could witness persistent heavy rain and flooding along the Yangtze River and in southern China.

However, El Niño is not a crystal ball. It raises the odds of extremes but does not dictate specific outcomes in a city, river basin or province.

Other factors, such as monsoons, ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, Arctic sea ice, snow over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and atmospheric circulation in the mid — and high latitudes also influence outcomes.

Climate is not a single switch but a complex system with many moving parts.

The critical question is whether global warming is making El Niño more extreme.

While the science is still evolving and climate models do not agree on every detail, there is a consensus that a warmer world is likely to increase the variability and severity of extreme El Niño events.

Climate change may not turn every El Niño into a super El Niño, but it is raising the temperature of the room in which the "little boy" is playing — and making his tantrums potentially more damaging. This shifts the focus from disaster relief to proactive resilience-building.

Cities need drainage systems designed for heavier downpours, better water storage for extended dry spells, cooler urban layouts and stronger infrastructure. Rural areas need resilient irrigation and drainage systems, adaptable cropping patterns and crops better able to withstand drought and flooding.

Since El Niño is a global phenomenon, resilience efforts cannot stop at national borders.

A drought in one region can disrupt food prices elsewhere, while floods can damage supply chains thousands of kilometers away. Ecological disasters can become economic or security issues long before they reach another country's shores.

That makes international cooperation more than an act of goodwill.

Countries need to share climate and ocean data, coordinate responses to extreme weather, strengthen global food-supply chains and help vulnerable nations prepare before disaster strikes.

The super El Niño looming over 2026 and 2027 should not be seen as nature's punishment.

It is a warning about the kind of world we are entering. Climate stability, once taken for granted, now requires active defense.

We may never be able to keep the "little boy" from causing trouble. But we can build a house strong enough to withstand his tantrums.

The author is a researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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